NHC Eastern North Pacific
01 July 2026
Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 011139
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Jul 1 2026
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Four-E, located well west-southwest of the southern tip
of the Baja California Peninsula.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Four-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Four-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP4.
$$
Forecaster Adams/Beven -
Summary for Tropical Depression Four-E (EP4/EP042026)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E FORMS IN WESTERN EAST PACIFIC... As of 2:00 AM PDT Wed Jul 01 the center of Four-E was located near 14.5, -126.9 with movement NNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Four-E Public Advisory Number 1
Issued at 200 AM PDT Wed Jul 01 2026
000 WTPZ34 KNHC 010835 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Four-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042026 200 AM PDT Wed Jul 01 2026 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E FORMS IN WESTERN EAST PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.5N 126.9W ABOUT 1250 MI...2015 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Four-E was located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 126.9 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and the system is forecast to become a tropical storm later today or tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Kelly
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Tropical Depression Four-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUL 01 2026
000 WTPZ24 KNHC 010833 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042026 0900 UTC WED JUL 01 2026 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 126.9W AT 01/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 126.9W AT 01/0900Z AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 126.8W FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 15.2N 127.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 16.3N 127.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 17.4N 127.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 18.4N 127.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 19.2N 128.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.7N 129.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 20.3N 132.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 126.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY
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Tropical Depression Four-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
Issued at 200 AM PDT Wed Jul 01 2026
697 WTPZ44 KNHC 010836 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Four-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042026 200 AM PDT Wed Jul 01 2026 The area of low pressure (95E) over the western East Pacific has continued to become better organized over the last 12 hours. Persistent deep convection has developed primarily over the eastern and southern portions of the circulation, with curved banding features becoming well defined. Recent scatterometer data indicate that the system has developed a closed, although somewhat elongated, low-level circulation with maximum winds around 30 kt. Subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates have increased to T1.5 from TAFB. Based on these developments, the system has been designated as Tropical Depression Four-E, with an initial intensity of 30 kt. The depression is moving north-northwestward (345/6 kt), and this general motion is forecast to continue over the next couple of days along the western periphery of a ridge over the central portion of the eastern Pacific basin. Models are in fairly good agreement with this general motion, and the official NHC forecast lies near the simple and corrected-consensus aids. Towards the end of the period, as the system weakens and turns westward into the low-level flow, there is slight timing differences of when that occurs based on the convective structure. The NHC forecast continues to lie near or just to the left of the consensus aids towards the end of the period. The system has about a day or so to strengthen within a favorable low-shear, moist environment, supported by upper-level divergence. The official forecast has the system strengthening into a tropical storm later today, which is good agreement with the latest intensity aids. However, as the system moves north-northwestward, it will encounter cooler SSTs along its track. In about 36–48 hours, wind shear is forecast to increase, and the system will move into a drier mid-level airmass. Given the combination of cooler SSTs and the increasingly unfavorable environment, the system is forecast to weaken and will eventually struggle to sustain deep convection. Simulated IR imagery from the GFS and ECMWF suggests the system could become devoid of deep convection by around 60 hours. Thus, the NHC forecast calls for the system to weaken into a post-tropical remnant low at that time, and dissipating into an open trough by the end of the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 14.5N 126.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 15.2N 127.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 02/0600Z 16.3N 127.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 02/1800Z 17.4N 127.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 03/0600Z 18.4N 127.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 03/1800Z 19.2N 128.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 04/0600Z 19.7N 129.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 05/0600Z 20.3N 132.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly
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Tropical Depression Four-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUL 01 2026
000 FOPZ14 KNHC 010835 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042026 0900 UTC WED JUL 01 2026 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 126.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) X(11) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER KELLY