VYC Weather Center
Current conditions, forecasts, tides and tropical weather for sailors, cruisers and residents of Banderas Bay.
Banderas Bay — Right Now
Nuevo Nayarit / Puerto Vallarta areaToday on Banderas Bay
Local knowledge: global models often underestimate Banderas Bay's afternoon thermal. Typical daily maximum thermal winds are often in the 10–16 kt range.
Today's Tides — Puerto Vallarta
ECMWF AIFS ensemble guidance
Mexican Pacific & Sea of Cortez
Daily briefing
Forecast-period highlights
Highest values expected anywhere in the displayed multi-day forecast.
How to view these graphs
- Ensemble mean wind
- The dark-blue line is the average wind speed across all 51 AIFS ensemble scenarios. It represents the ensemble’s central expectation and is normally the best line for understanding the overall trend.
- Control wind
- The light-blue line is one specific forecast scenario, initialized from unperturbed starting conditions. It is useful for comparison, but it is not inherently more likely than the other ensemble members.
- Ensemble spread
- The shaded blue band shows one standard deviation above and below the mean. A narrow band means the scenarios agree more closely; a wide band indicates greater uncertainty.
- Threshold probabilities
- The middle graph shows the percentage of ensemble scenarios forecasting wind of at least 19 or 29 knots, or offshore waves of at least 2 metres. Wind probabilities use solid orange or red lines; wave probability uses a dashed purple line with circular markers. Higher percentages mean greater confidence that the threshold will be reached.
- Wave height and period
- The lower graph uses the left axis for significant wave height in metres and the right axis for mean wave period in seconds. These are offshore model values and may not represent sheltered harbours or inner bays.
- Wind and wave direction
- Hover over the graphs for direction and exact values. ECMWF provides a derived ensemble-mean wind speed but not a matching mean surface-wind direction, so the displayed wind direction comes from the control scenario.
Practical reading: give the ensemble mean and shaded spread the most weight. Use the control line as another plausible scenario, not as a preferred forecast.
Interactive Weather Map
Weather · Tropical Systems · Forecast OverlaysTropical Weather
Hurricane TRUDY
Issued at 800 AM MST Sun Oct 18 2026 000
WTPZ31 KNHC 181432
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
Hurricane Trudy Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212026
800 AM MST Sun Oct 18 2026
...TRUDY EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE COAST OF MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON...
...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND
WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 106.8W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 M…
Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Trudy, located offshore of southwestern Mexico.
South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form well offshore of
southern Mexico during the next day or two. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development thereafter, and
a tropical depression is likely to form around the middle of this
week while it moves westward to west-northwestward, well south of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
Mexican Pacific Cruising Weather
Automated coastal snapshot| Location | Wind | Gusts | Seas | Swell | Weather | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cabo San Lucas | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Mazatlán | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Banderas Bay | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Manzanillo | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Zihuatanejo | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Acapulco | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
Satellite
Clouds & Convection
Hurricane Trudy is near 19.1N 106.8W at 8 AM PDT, and is moving northwest at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 970 mb. Trudy will move to 19.7N 107.2W this evening, 20.1N 107.8W Mon morning, then weaken to a tropical storm near 20.3N 108.4W Mon evening, Tropical Storm Trudy will reach 20.6N 109.0W Tue morning, weaken to a remnant low near 21.2N 109.6W Tue evening, and be just south of Baja California Sur Wed morning. Trudy will dissipate early Thu. Strong high pressure building southward through Mexico will continue to force gale-force winds through the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Tue night, with very rough seas to 18 ft prevailing. Near gale-force winds and rough seas are then likely to continue through the remainder of the week. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to form well offshore of southern Mexico within a couple of days. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression is expected to form around the middle of this week while it moves westward to west- northwestward, well south of Mexico. There is a high chance of tropical formation of this low over the next 7 days.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS. NE winds 50 to 55 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft. Period 16 seconds. Scattered showers and isolated tstms through the day. Vsby 1 NM or less.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NE winds 60 to 75 kt. Seas 12 to 19 ft. Period 15 seconds. Scattered showers and isolated tstms through the night. Vsby 1 NM or less.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS. W winds 70 to 80 kt. Seas 14 to 21 ft in NE swell. Period 14 seconds. Scattered showers and isolated tstms through the day. Vsby 1 NM or less.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED. W winds 60 to 75 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft. Period 15 seconds. Scattered showers and isolated tstms through the night. Vsby 1 NM or less.
Weather Resources
Learn how to interpret the forecasts and understand Banderas Bay's local weather patterns.
7-Day Tide Table Puerto Vallarta tide predictions View
| Date | 1st Tide | 2nd Tide | 3rd Tide | 4th Tide | Sun (Rise/Set) | Moon |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18 |
12:22 am ▼ 1 ft |
9:12 am ▲ 2.5 ft |
- | - | 6:57:34 AM 6:34:44 PM |
First Quarter |
| Oct 19 |
12:29 am ▼ 0.7 ft |
8:05 am ▲ 2.5 ft |
1:24 pm ▼ 1.8 ft |
5:47 pm ▲ 2.2 ft |
6:57:57 AM 6:33:59 PM |
First Quarter |
| Oct 20 |
12:42 am ▼ 0.5 ft |
7:33 am ▲ 2.6 ft |
1:08 pm ▼ 1.4 ft |
6:29 pm ▲ 2.6 ft |
6:58:20 AM 6:33:16 PM |
Waxing Gibbous |
| Oct 21 |
12:58 am ▼ 0.3 ft |
7:25 am ▲ 2.8 ft |
1:17 pm ▼ 0.9 ft |
7:02 pm ▲ 2.9 ft |
6:58:43 AM 6:32:33 PM |
Waxing Gibbous |
| Oct 22 |
1:16 am ▼ 0.2 ft |
7:31 am ▲ 3.1 ft |
1:35 pm ▼ 0.5 ft |
7:34 pm ▲ 3.1 ft |
6:59:07 AM 6:31:51 PM |
Waxing Gibbous |
| Oct 23 |
1:36 am ▼ 0.2 ft |
7:44 am ▲ 3.4 ft |
1:58 pm ▼ 0 ft |
8:06 pm ▲ 3.3 ft |
6:59:31 AM 6:31:10 PM |
Waxing Gibbous |
| Oct 24 |
1:57 am ▼ 0.2 ft |
8:03 am ▲ 3.7 ft |
2:26 pm ▼ -0.4 ft |
8:39 pm ▲ 3.3 ft |
6:59:56 AM 6:30:30 PM |
Full |
Where Do We Get Our Weather Data? NOAA, ECMWF, Open-Meteo, WorldTides, UWM and how VYC processes it Learn more
The VYC Weather Center doesn't rely on a single weather service. We combine information from several government, academic and commercial data sources, choosing each one for the job it does best. We then process and organize that data to give sailors a quick picture of conditions in Banderas Bay and along the Mexican Pacific coast.
Open-Meteo
Much of the weather information displayed in our current-conditions and cruising-weather panels comes through Open-Meteo. This includes wind, temperature, pressure, precipitation and cloud cover, together with marine information such as wave height, period and direction.
NOAA Global Forecast System (GFS)
Our interactive forecast map uses data from NOAA's Global Forecast System. VYC downloads the raw GFS forecast files for the Mexican Pacific and extracts the wind, gust, atmospheric pressure, precipitation and cloud-cover data useful to sailors.
NOAA GFS-Wave
Wave forecasts come from NOAA's global GFS-Wave model. We process significant wave height, wave period and wave direction to create the wave layer displayed on the interactive weather map.
ECMWF AIFS Ensemble
Our multi-day wind and wave graphs use ECMWF's Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System ensemble. The display compares the ensemble mean with the control forecast, shows forecast spread and gives probabilities for stronger winds and higher seas from Banderas Bay to Cabo San Lucas and the Sea of Cortez. ECMWF AIFS open data is used under CC BY 4.0.
National Hurricane Center
Official tropical-weather advisories, warnings and forecast tracks come from NOAA's National Hurricane Center. These are the authoritative products we use for active tropical systems in the eastern Pacific.
University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee Hurricane Models
Hurricane forecast-model tracks are obtained from the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee hurricane-models site. VYC downloads the available model-track files and combines them into the model-track overlay shown on the interactive weather map. These model tracks are guidance only and should always be considered alongside the official NHC forecast.
GOES-19 Satellite
Satellite imagery comes from NOAA's GOES-19 weather satellite, providing a broad view of cloud development, convection and tropical activity over Mexico and the eastern Pacific.
NOAA Marine Forecasts
The marine forecast section includes official eastern Pacific forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center. These are particularly useful when evaluating conditions beyond Banderas Bay and planning longer coastal or offshore passages.
WorldTides.info
Tide predictions are supplied by WorldTides.info through VYC's TideTable system. We use these predictions for the daily and seven-day tide displays and to determine the next expected high or low tide.
How VYC Turns the Data Into This Page
Some information can be displayed almost directly, but much of the Weather Center is generated automatically behind the scenes.
Several times each day, VYC's weather system downloads raw NOAA forecast data covering Banderas Bay and much of the Mexican Pacific. The large GRIB forecast files are reduced to the geographic area and weather variables that are useful to sailors.
Wind speed and direction are calculated from the model's east-west and north-south wind components. Atmospheric pressure is processed and contoured into familiar isobars. Wave height, period and direction are combined to create the marine forecast display.
The resulting Wind, Pressure and Waves layers are rendered at three-hour intervals out to 120 hours and placed over the interactive map.
VYC also downloads hurricane forecast-model tracks from the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, combines the individual model files into a single overlay, and displays those alongside official NHC storm tracks and our Mexican Pacific cruising destinations.
For the summary panels, we select the forecast data nearest each location, convert it into familiar units, calculate useful values such as the next tide, and condense the results into the cards and tables you see on this page.
The result is not another weather model. It is VYC's sailor-friendly presentation of several established weather, marine and tide-data sources in one place.
A note about forecasts: Computer models are guidance, not observations, and different models may disagree. Conditions around Banderas Bay can also be strongly affected by local terrain and sea-breeze effects that global models cannot always resolve. For important decisions, particularly offshore or during tropical weather, always consult the latest official forecasts and warnings.
